Daily Market Report – 19 Aug 2025

Peace Efforts Gain Momentum, But Resolution Still Elusive

Trump Pushes for Ukraine Talks

US President Donald Trump pledged American support for Ukraine’s security during a White House summit with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders. Trump proposed a trilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, potentially in Hungary, to advance talks. While European leaders such as Germany’s Friedrich Merz and France’s Emmanuel Macron insisted on a ceasefire first, Trump pushed for a faster resolution.

Despite the warmer reception for Zelenskiy, major sticking points remain. Kyiv fears pressure to concede Crimea or NATO membership aspirations, while Moscow insists on a comprehensive agreement rather than a temporary ceasefire.

Hamas Accepts Ceasefire Proposal

In the Middle East, Hamas agreed to a 60-day ceasefire plan mediated by Egypt and Qatar with US backing. The deal includes the release of half the hostages in Gaza and some Palestinian prisoners, though Israel has yet to respond. Protests in Tel Aviv are urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to accept the deal amid fears for the remaining hostages.

However, sharp disagreements persist over Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and humanitarian aid delivery. Netanyahu maintains that Gaza City remains Hamas’s last stronghold. With over 61,000 Palestinians reported dead and famine looming, the proposal’s success hinges on Israel’s response.

Market Impact: ZAR Treads Water

Currency Markets

The rand started the week defensively, trading around 17.63/$, with analysts pointing to profit-taking after its recent strength and uncertainty over peace deals. Support remains firm at 17.4650, while resistance lies near 17.7000. Global currency markets are in limbo ahead of central bank guidance at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week.

Bonds Consolidate in Tight Range

Global bond markets are steady as investors await clarity on US tariffs and inflation. The US yield curve steepened, while S&P reaffirmed the country’s AA+ rating, citing tariff revenues as a cushion against fiscal deficits. Locally, South African bonds remain subdued, with investors watching inflation data due tomorrow, expected at 3.5% — above the SARB’s new 3% preference.

Commodities: Oil Steadies, Metals Mixed

Energy and Softs

Oil prices steadied with Brent near $66.50/bbl as markets weighed Trump’s push for Ukraine talks against continued supply risks, including Ukraine’s strike on Russia’s Druzhba pipeline. Meanwhile, China is reopening rapeseed trade with Australia after a five-year halt, diversifying away from Canada.

Metals

Gold held near $3,336/oz, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed policy clarity at Jackson Hole. Base metals, however, weakened as a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment. Copper slipped to $9,733/ton, while other industrial metals also retreated.

Broader Context

China’s Trade Pivot

Amid Trump’s tariff war, China has accelerated its pivot toward the Global South. Exports to developing economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America have doubled over the past decade, now accounting for over half of its trade surplus. President Xi Jinping has deepened ties through tariff cuts for African nations and expanded trade with Latin America.

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