ANC Pushes Private Sector Inclusion to Drive Economic Revival

President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to unveil the ANC’s comprehensive economic action plan today, following a two-day NEC meeting. The blueprint seeks to accelerate South Africa’s sluggish growth by expanding private sector participation across key network industries such as Transnet and Prasa.
The plan aligns with National Treasury and the Department of Trade, Industry & Competition’s recent push to enhance municipal efficiency and investor attractiveness. According to ANC economic transformation chair Zuko Godlimpi, the plan will outline measurable short- and medium-term goals to address systemic underperformance.

However, analysts caution that the move reflects desperation more than reformist zeal. After decades of centralisation and state intervention, the ANC is increasingly turning to the private sector as a last resort. With SOEs cash-strapped and local elections looming in 2026, privatisation now appears inevitable. Economists note that Operation Vulindlela’s success has paved the way for this shift, though sustained reform remains uncertain.

Gold Surge Keeps Rand Supported Amid Global Uncertainty

Gold prices broke fresh records above $3,900 per ounce, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risk, yen weakness, and the US government shutdown. The metal’s 49% year-to-date gain has strengthened South Africa’s terms of trade, underpinning the rand’s resilience.
At R17.26/$, the ZAR remains one of the world’s best-performing emerging-market currencies this year. Analysts cite the SARB’s conservative stance, the 3% inflation target, and high carry appeal as key supports.

According to ETM’s carry attractiveness index, the rand ranks among the top global currencies for investors seeking yield. Continued inflows into South African bonds and the country’s expected removal from the FATF greylist could sustain ZAR strength in the medium term.

Bonds Find Stability as Inflation Risk Diminishes

Demand for inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) weakened for a third consecutive auction, dropping to R2.47bn from R2.96bn the week prior, as investors accepted the SARB’s 3% inflation anchor. However, National Treasury still met its R1bn issuance target, with long-dated I2058 bonds attracting strong bids.
While ILB yields have compressed since July, vanilla SAGBs remain more attractive to foreign investors, supported by robust inflows and rand strength. Analysts expect further bull flattening of the yield curve as foreign appetite for long-term SA debt remains strong.

Oil Rises After OPEC+ Opts for Modest Output Increase

Oil prices edged higher after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production hike of 137,000 barrels per day for November. The cautious move followed internal debate between Saudi Arabia and Russia, signalling concern over oversupply as Brent crude climbed back above $65/bbl.
While the decision provided short-term support, analysts believe global demand weakness and record 2026 surplus forecasts will limit further gains.

Coffee Futures Rally on Brazil Drought Fears

Arabica coffee prices jumped 3% in New York as prolonged dryness in Brazil threatens crop yields for the 2026–27 season. Meteorologists warn that the developing La Niña pattern could worsen heat and drought, curbing production.
Meanwhile, robusta prices in London also rose as stockpiles declined and speculative demand increased. Weather patterns in the coming weeks will be crucial for Brazil’s next crop, with sentiment tilted toward higher prices.

Gold Nears $4,000 as Shutdown Lifts Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices continued their seven-week rally, reaching $3,905/oz in early Asian trade, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and strong central bank demand. Copper also gained, climbing 0.7% to $10,785/t on the London Metal Exchange, as supply disruptions and monetary easing expectations buoyed sentiment.
Traders warn, however, that rising commodity prices could reintroduce inflationary pressures globally.

Trump Presses for Gaza Peace Deal

US President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Israel and Hamas to finalise a ceasefire during talks in Egypt, led by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The plan includes a phased prisoner exchange and Hamas’s eventual disarmament.
Despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes, optimism for a truce has grown, with the shekel strengthening to three-year highs. Meanwhile, in France, President Emmanuel Macron faces backlash for retaining most of his cabinet, sparking opposition calls for no-confidence votes over fiscal policy continuity.

Market Snapshot

• USD/ZAR: 17.26
• Gold: $3,905/oz
• Brent crude: $65.20/bbl
• US 10-year yield: 4.12%
• Eurozone retail sales: +1.4% y/y expected