The risk for now is that the war becomes more widespread. The danger is that it impacts oil production at a time when oil prices are already buoyant. Inflation remains a worldwide theme, and any further spikes in the oil price will not be welcome. It holds the potential to impact equity market performance and to spike global levels of risk aversion, which for a currency like the ZAR, spells bad news. The alternative of a quick resolution appears to be far off for now.