BASELINE VIEW – PRECIOUS METALS:
Gold will remain focused on the movements in the dollar and US treasuries for short-term trading bias. Investors with a longer-term outlook will favour accumulating on any dips as a hedge against both the geopolitical and macro-economic risks.
The noble group metals have the slowdown in the global economy and supply constraints playing tug of war with price action. Up until now, concerns surrounding global growth have overshadowed the supply issue.
BASELINE VIEW – INDUSTRIAL METALS:
Low inventory levels, the war in the Ukraine, and the sanctions against Russia are underpinning base metal prices, while economic growth concerns and tighter monetary policy from the likes of the Fed are providing the cap. Looking forward, the growth concerns may begin to ease as China starts opening Shanghai, however, we are still many months away from “normal economic conditions”. We do not expect volatility in the base metal basket to temper anytime soon.
Speak to Wichard Cilliers, Head of Commodities Risk Management at TreasuryONE