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Money Market FundsTreasuryONE and ETM Analytics opened their first webinar of 2026 by unpacking why the rand has been relatively resilient despite a sharp rise in geopolitical noise, with ETM Analytics director and co-founder George Glynos framing the session around “the politics of power” and the market impact of shifting global influence. The discussion focused less on daily headlines and more on the underlying drivers behind policy decisions, particularly in the US, and how those decisions feed through to currencies, bonds and commodities.
Glynos argued that the US is acting more forcefully on trade and geopolitics because it is responding to the growing influence of an expanded “BRICS+” bloc. He said BRICS’ rising share of global GDP is part of a broader shift toward a more multipolar world, which puts pressure on US “dollar dominance” and the country’s ability to shape international policy. In this context, he described tariffs, sanctions and high-profile geopolitical interventions as attempts to reassert US strategic influence while also rebalancing US trade dynamics over a longer-term horizon.
A key theme was the global rotation away from US assets and the implications for gold. In response to a question on whether gold can keep running, Glynos said he believes the move has further to go because it is being supported by central-bank buying, particularly from BRICS-linked jurisdictions, alongside a preference for assets that are harder to sanction. He also shared the view that BRICS’ gold accumulation may be linked to longer-term ambitions to develop a digital currency or “stable coin” backed by real assets such as gold and oil—positioning this as part of a wider contest over future monetary influence.
The webinar also explored energy and logistics as strategic pressure points. Glynos described Venezuela and global oil flows as central to the way sanctions are enforced or circumvented, including the role of “shadow” or “dark” shipping fleets and the knock-on effects on freight rates and sanctioned supply lines. He further highlighted Greenland as an emerging focal point, citing defence considerations, shipping routes and access to rare earth minerals, and suggested any outcome is likely to involve a reaction from NATO and allied partners even if the end-state remains uncertain.
On markets, Glynos said the dollar remains elevated but may have “seen its best days” as cyclical factors (a potential US slowdown and an eventual shift in Federal Reserve policy) combine with structural forces (reserve diversification away from US Treasuries). Turning to South Africa, he noted that local conditions have improved at the margin, pointing to firmer commodity support, signs of domestic reform momentum (including the reform drive often referred to as Operation Vulindlela), and stronger sentiment toward SA assets. He said the result has been a meaningful move lower in South African bond yields relative to US yields, tighter spreads versus US bonds, and renewed foreign interest—factors that, in his view, help explain why the rand has held up better than many would expect in a turbulent global backdrop.