In this week’s market update brought to you by TreasuryONE and ETM Analytics, the focus is on various global elections and their economic impacts.

We start with the French elections. Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections, which resulted in an unexpectedly strong performance by Marine Le Pen’s National Party. This development has influenced the euro, which recovered slightly, signalling potential volatility in the upcoming second round of elections in France.

Attention then shifts to the UK, where Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces declining support from his Conservative Party. With the UK elections imminent, the Labour Party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party are gaining ground. The political instability could lead to significant fluctuations in the British pound, highlighting the need for market participants to stay alert. The situation echoes the unexpected outcome of Brexit, suggesting a potential shift in leadership to Labour’s Keir Starmer.

In the US, the presidential race between Trump and Biden is heating up. Biden’s recent debate performance negatively impacted his re-election odds, raising concerns about his health and capability. This dynamic has strengthened Trump’s position, who advocates for tax cuts and economic reforms. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, along with upcoming economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls, will be crucial in shaping market expectations.

Lastly, we look at the local South African elections, where the new cabinet has been announced after a month of deliberations. The finance sector remains stable with continuity in leadership, but the expanded cabinet includes some unexpected appointments. The market reaction has been positive, with the rand strengthening slightly. However, the focus remains on how both domestic and international factors will influence the currency and investor confidence in the coming months. The next week’s developments will be closely monitored to assess their impact on the global economic landscape.