Balance of risks table as per MPC statement


Dovish Hawkish
  1. Headline inflation forecasts were revised lower to 6.0% in 2023 from 6.2% previously.
  2. Core inflation estimates also revised lower to 5.2% in 2023 (previously 5.3%), 4.9% (from 5.0%), and 4.5% (from 4.6%) in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
  3. Prices for commodity exports continue to weaken.
  4. The output gap is expected to remain around zero over the next three years.
  5. Fuel price inflation lower at -3.1% in 2023 (from-2.0)
  6. QPM sees Repo Rate at 8.03% by the end of the year.
  1. Risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to the upside.
  2. Domestic food prices remain elevated, and upside risks exist. In addition, the energy supply remains unreliable, and stronger El Nino conditions threaten the agricultural outlook
  3. Tighter global financial conditions are expected to persist. Average interest rates in major economies are expected to remain high
  4. Inflation expectations remain elevated. BER survey shows average inflation expectations of 6.5% for 2023
  5. Economic growth revised higher to 0.4% this year from 0.3%