Balance of risks table as per MPC statement
- Headline inflation forecasts were revised lower to 6.0% in 2023 from 6.2% previously.
- Core inflation estimates also revised lower to 5.2% in 2023 (previously 5.3%), 4.9% (from 5.0%), and 4.5% (from 4.6%) in 2024 and 2025, respectively.
- Prices for commodity exports continue to weaken.
- The output gap is expected to remain around zero over the next three years.
- Fuel price inflation lower at -3.1% in 2023 (from-2.0)
- QPM sees Repo Rate at 8.03% by the end of the year.
- Risks to the inflation outlook are assessed to the upside.
- Domestic food prices remain elevated, and upside risks exist. In addition, the energy supply remains unreliable, and stronger El Nino conditions threaten the agricultural outlook
- Tighter global financial conditions are expected to persist. Average interest rates in major economies are expected to remain high
- Inflation expectations remain elevated. BER survey shows average inflation expectations of 6.5% for 2023
- Economic growth revised higher to 0.4% this year from 0.3%