BASELINE VIEW – PRECIOUS METALS:
Precious metals should remain supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank diversification and constrained PGM supply. However, elevated US yields and persistent inflation will limit gold’s near-term upside. Platinum is preferred to palladium, given tighter fundamentals, while palladium remains vulnerable to longer-term automotive electrification.
BASELINE VIEW – INDUSTRIAL METALS:
Base metals should retain a firm but increasingly selective tone. Copper and aluminium benefit from tight inventories, tariff-related trade distortions and structural supply constraints, although current valuations invite volatility. Zinc can remain elevated while Western smelters struggle, but rising Chinese production and weak construction demand cap its medium-term upside.
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