• Inflation: Headline consumer inflation slowed by more than expected from 3.5% y/y in January to 3.0% y/y in February, the lowest since June 2025 and in line with the SARB’s new inflation target. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) decelerated to 3.0% y/y from 3.4% y/y in January. Disappointingly, elevated oil prices linked to the Middle East war are expected to feed into a surge in inflation from April, compounded with ZAR depreciation. CPI is expected to move above 4.0% in the coming months.
  • Repo rate: The SARB held rates steady, choosing to wait for clearer signs on whether the Iran war will be short-lived or prolonged. The inflationary and market impacts will largely depend on the duration, with a quick resolution likely leading to only temporary price pressures and limited financial disruption.

 

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