Monthly Rates Dashboard – Dec 2025

The broader tone of the SARB’s November MPC meeting was perhaps slightly more dovish than expected, as was the unanimous vote on the 25bp cut. This suggests that the SARB may see scope for further rate reductions in the coming months, even if the stop-go pattern we are currently in continues.

The SARB is moving into uncharted territory with its new 3% inflation goal and will not want to damage its credibility by easing too vigorously and allowing inflation to rise near the top of, or beyond, the new 1% tolerance band.

However, based on the market reaction and the QPM Model, another two cuts could be on the cards before the end of H1 2026. Of course, this will depend on the evolution of inflation over the months ahead.

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