Inflation: Headline CPI remained stubbornly buoyant at 3.5% y/y in Nov vs the 3.6% y/y in Oct. Overall, SA’s inflationary outlook remains subdued, albeit it above the 3% inflation target and should prompt the SARB to remain somewhat conservative.
Repo rate: The SARB cut interest rates by 25bp in November. Although this was the first meeting under the newly formalised inflation-targeting framework, policymakers agreed that monetary conditions could be eased without jeopardising progress toward the new target. The SARB QPM model forecasts interest rates to average 6.19% by the end of 2026 and 5.99% by the end of 2027.
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