• Inflation: Headline inflation eased by slightly less than expected in January to 3.5% y/y from 3.6%. The softer reading marks continued progress toward the SARB’s 3% inflation target, validating the timing of its mandate shift. Looking ahead, inflation is likely to ease further in February. However, further out, much will depend on how long the Middle East war continues and whether ZAR deprecation is sustained or not.

 

  • Repo rate: Given the latest developments in the Middle East, which have pushed oil and the ZAR upwards, it is possible that inflation could rise to 4% in March; the SARB will likely keep interest rates unchanged later this month.

 

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