Monthly Rates Dashboard – Nov 2025

Inflation: Headline inflation ticked up to +3.4% y/y in September from +3.3% y/y in August. Core CPI excluding volatile food and energy components ticked higher for the third consecutive month to +3.2% y/y from +3.1% y/y in August. Overall, low inflation outcomes are expected to persist into Q4, with consumer prices continuing to rise only modestly as we head towards 2026.

Repo rate: The muted inflation outlook implies that there is scope for further rate reductions by the SARB in coming months, even as it targets its preferred inflation target of 3%. ETM believes that a January rate cut remains possible, but that a March reduction is more likely, potentially followed by another one in September.