Monthly Rates Dashboard – Oct 2025

The recent appreciation of the ZAR and the drop in SAGB yields have led to a notable shift in interest rate expectations amongst market participants. The FRA curve has shifted lower, and we now see that the market is pricing in a greater chance of more rate cuts within the next six to nine months.

FRAs that cover the November MPC meeting reflect more than 20bp worth of rate cut risk priced in, while coverage of the January meeting factors in a full 25bp reduction. By the May meeting, market implied rates reflect 46bp of rate cut risk. Sentiment is increasingly aligning with two cuts over the coming year. This broadly aligns with the SARB’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).