Rising tensions in the Middle East, US energy strategy, and the impact on the ZAR

The US’s recent focus on Venezuelan oil offers insight into how energy considerations could be driving the US’s potential military action against Iran. As shown in the chart, although the US pumps a lot of oil, it has relatively little oil left underground compared with other major producers.

That contrasts sharply with Venezuela, which sits at the extreme opposite end, with relatively low production, but by far the largest proven crude reserves in the world, highlighting why Venezuelan oil is strategically attractive to Washington. Access to Venezuela’s crude allows the US to relieve pressure on its own declining reserve base while keeping domestic producers active with cheaper-to-produce feedstock.

It also gives the US leverage in global oil markets. Expanding Venezuelan supply can weigh on prices and counter OPEC influence. Beyond domestic concerns, Venezuelan oil has been leveraged as a geopolitical tool. By supplying global markets with US-approved crude, Washington can restrict Russia’s influence, potentially increasing pressure on Moscow to reconsider its war strategies.

Recall that the US pressured India to halt purchases of Russian oil by signalling potential economic consequences for continuing imports while offering an olve branch in the form of reduced tariffs. In that context, political pressure on Venezuela’s leadership was not ideological; rather, it aligned closely with long-term US energy security and geopolitical strategy.

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