SUMMARY
The SARB matched consensus expectations and kept interest rates unchanged at its January MPC meeting, with the vote split 4-2, with the dissenters favouring a 25bp cut.
Once again, the SARB’s inflation forecasts were trimmed marginally compared to those from the previous meeting, while GDP growth estimates were left unchanged.
The QPM, interestingly, points to a more gradual easing path ahead compared to the November MPC meeting, with rates expected to average 6.31% by the end of 2026 (compared to 6.19% previously) and 6.05% by the end of 2027.
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