Bottom Line

  • The SARB kept rates on hold with the vote unanimous in favour of the hold, a shift from the 3-2 split seen at the previous meeting. This was somewhat surprising, given this week’s inflation numbers, but was in line with what we anticipated.
  • Overall, the speech was fairly balanced and less hawkish than the previous two, and there was nothing to suggest that another rate hike is in the pipeline unless we get a notable market shock. The SARB’s forecasts for economic growth were revised slightly higher, while estimates for inflation for 2024 and 2025 were lowered marginally. Kganyago did, however, note that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside.