Hedging
Liquidity Solutions
Cash Flow Forecasting
Corporate Treasury Outsourcing
Treasury Tecnology
Connectivity
Supply Chain Finance
SME Forex
Money Market FundsThe latest trade data released today offers an update on broader cross-border dynamics that will impact the ZAR. The trade data roared back into surplus, while the historical data was revised upwards, confirming that there is still a very supportive trade balance element that helps drive the ZAR’s tailwind. The latest data confirms that the surplus for June bounced back to R17.75bn, while the deficit seen in May was revised upwards to R4.44bn from a deficit of R1.79bn.
One would typically associate greater ZAR resilience with a stronger trade surplus. The one-year smoothed data remains comfortably above the R15bn monthly surplus, and this will contribute constructively to SA’s current account of the Balance of Payments.
Beyond just analysing the trade data on a nominal basis, it is instructive to do so on a relative basis, calculating the trade account as a percentage of GDP. That analysis reveals that on a 3m smoothed moving average, the ratio of the trade surplus as a percentage of GDP is still firmly in surplus territory. It therefore remains a tailwind for the ZAR.
