This week’s market review from TreasuryONE and ETM Analytics highlights ongoing uncertainty in global markets as geopolitical and economic pressures continue to shape the outlook. The US and China have reached a short-term trade truce, easing immediate tensions and providing temporary relief to financial markets. While the agreement offers breathing room for both economies—particularly China, amid weaker data—questions remain about its durability given unresolved structural and political differences.
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has entered its sixth week, leaving markets without official economic data and forcing increased reliance on private surveys. Early indicators point toward gradually weakening labour conditions and rising unemployment. Analysts cautioned that a shutdown exceeding previous historical lengths could further erode business confidence, disrupt sectors such as aviation during the holiday season, and increase recession risk.
Despite limited official data, market expectations remain in favour of another Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December. Fed officials continue to emphasise data dependence, yet the combination of softening labour momentum and political gridlock is heightening expectations of monetary easing. Once the government reopens, a backlog of data releases is expected to provide clearer direction on the strength of the world’s largest economy.
In contrast to global uncertainty, the South African rand has performed strongly, supported by a weaker US dollar, stable domestic policy signalling, and positive sentiment following South Africa’s removal from the FATF grey list. Cross-currency performance indicates notable resilience, with EUR/ZAR below 20 and GBP/ZAR under 23. TreasuryONE expects the rand to remain within current trading ranges in the near term, supported by improving investor sentiment and favourable carry flows.
