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Money Market FundsGlobal markets were thrown back into uncertainty after the US Supreme Court temporarily halted President Donald Trump’s use of emergency tariffs, disrupting a key pillar of his trade strategy. While the ruling paused certain tariff measures, new tariff adjustments quickly followed, including a revised across-the-board levy of 15%, replacing an earlier 10% announcement. The rapid policy shifts have unsettled investors, reinforcing concerns about ongoing unpredictability in US trade policy and weighing on the US dollar.
Currency strategist André Selye noted that financial markets typically react negatively to policy uncertainty. Since the original “Liberation Day” tariff announcements last year, investors have had to navigate repeated postponements, reversals and revisions. Such volatility encourages capital to seek safer or more predictable destinations, including gold and other precious metals. The latest developments have renewed caution toward US assets, particularly as structural trade changes triggered by tariffs are not easily reversed.
Attention now turns to South Africa’s national budget, with Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana expected to present a more constructive fiscal outlook. Market participants are watching key indicators such as the deficit-to-GDP ratio and debt levels rather than marginal tax adjustments. Improved tax collection and stronger revenue performance may provide limited fiscal breathing room, although structural pressures remain. Potential announcements on exchange control reforms could further support investor sentiment by signalling a more open investment environment.
The rand has already benefited from renewed dollar softness and is trading below the R16 mark. A broadly positive budget, combined with external uncertainty in the US, could support further rand strength toward the mid-R15 range, although volatility remains possible. With global trade tensions, domestic fiscal policy and geopolitical risks all in play, markets are expected to remain sensitive to new developments in the coming weeks.