In a recent webinar hosted by TreasuryONE, Head of Market Risk, Wichard Cilliers and George Glynos from ETM Analytics unpacked the complex global market environment and its implications for South Africa and the Rand.
The discussion centred on the evolving fiscal and geopolitical landscape in the United States, with special attention paid to President Trump’s proposed tariffs, ballooning US debt, and shifting international reserves. Glynos emphasised the long-term structural weakness developing in the US dollar, highlighting a potential decline of 10–15% over the coming years as global reserve managers pivot toward alternative assets, including Gold.
Closer to home, South Africa’s trade terms are improving, driven by strong commodity prices and attractive carry trade potential. While short-term market volatility remains a risk – particularly if global equities correct – Glynos noted that the Rand may strengthen further, particularly if South Africa exits the FATF grey list later this year and accelerates structural reform.
Despite persistent concerns over domestic debt levels and policy uncertainty, the tone of the webinar remained cautiously optimistic. Both Wichard and George stress the importance of watching US interest rates, global liquidity conditions, and trade policy announcements in the months ahead.