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Middle East Talks Ease Markets, but Inflation and Rate Hike Risks Remain in Focus
3 August 2026
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Rand Volatility Surges as Oil Prices and Iran-US Tensions Shake Markets
27 July 2026
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Middle East Talks Ease Markets, but Inflation and Rate Hike Risks Remain in Focus
20 July 2026
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Middle East tensions put oil, inflation and the rand back in focus
13 July 2026
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US Jobs Slow as Carry Trade Risks Put the Rand in Focus
7 July 2026
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Oil Relief and Fed Uncertainty Shape Rand Outlook
22 June 2026
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Markets Eye Relief as US-Iran Deal Raises Hopes for Oil, Inflation and the Rand
15 June 2026
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Middle East Talks Ease Markets, but Inflation and Rate Hike Risks Remain in Focus
26 May 2026
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Xi-Trump Meeting Brings Little Clarity as Markets Focus on Rates, Inflation and a Rand Held Hostage
18 May 2026
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Oil Above $100, Inflation Risks Rising, and the Rand Caught Between War and Politics
12 May 2026
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Hedging moves higher up the corporate agenda as volatility reshapes treasury risk
12 May 2026
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Japan’s Structural Strain, US Jobs Watch and a Rand Caught in a Frozen Conflict
4 May 2026
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Ceasefire Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge as Inflation Risks Build
20 April 2026
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Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge as Rand Remains Headline-Driven
14 April 2026
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Iran War Enters Week 6 as Markets Swing on Ceasefire Hopes, Oil and Rand Volatility
7 April 2026
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Middle East Headlines Jolt Markets as Oil, Rand and Rate Expectations Swing Sharply
23 March 2026
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Oil Shock Deepens as Middle East War Drives Inflation Risk and Puts Central Banks on Alert
17 March 2026
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Oil Shock Deepens as Middle East Conflict Escalates and Markets Reprice Global Inflation Risk
9 March 2026
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Middle East Conflict Escalates as Oil Surges and Markets Brace for Inflation Shock
2 March 2026
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US Supreme Court Halts Trump Tariffs
23 February 2026
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Markets Watch Japan’s Policy Shift as US Numbers Loom
10 February 2026
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Market Volatility Surges as Fed Chair Announcement Triggers Sharp Commodity Reversal
3 February 2026
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Metals Surge, Dollar Weakens as Central Banks Signal Pause and Rand Gains Strength
26 January 2026
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Tariff Tensions Escalate as US–Europe Relations Strain and Markets Reassess Rate Cut Expectations
19 January 2026
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US Labour Data Revisions Raise Concerns as Fed Independence Comes Under Pressure
12 January 2026
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Geopolitics, Oil and the Dollar: What 2026 Is Shaping Up to Look Like
5 January 2026
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US Labour Market Weakens as Unemployment Hits Four-Year High
17 December 2025
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US Labour Market Weakens, Fed Cut Fully Priced: What It Means for the Rand
8 December 2025
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Fed Rate Cut Back on the Table? Mixed U.S. Data, SA GDP & Rand Outlook
1 December 2025
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Global Cross-Currents Intensify: Fed Uncertainty, G20 Outcomes & Rand Outlook
24 November 2025
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Budget Boost, Credit Upgrade & What’s Next for the Rand
19 November 2025
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US Shutdown Drags On, China–US Truce Brings Temporary Calm
3 November 2025
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Fed Rate Cut in Focus as US Inflation Softens and Dollar Weakens – What It Means for the Rand
27 October 2025
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Global Trade Tensions Escalate: What It Means for Markets, the Dollar and the Rand
21 October 2025
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Sticky Inflation, US Shutdown Risks, and AGOA Uncertainty Shape Market Outlook
30 September 2025
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Fed Cuts, AI Distortions, and a Firm Rand
22 September 2025
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Big Week for Central Banks: Fed and SARB Decisions to Shape Rand’s Path
15 September 2025
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US Job Data Weakens, Rate Cut Expectations Rise – Impact on the Rand
8 September 2025
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Markets Await Key U.S. Labour Data as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Build
1 September 2025
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Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise: Rand Holds Steady Amid Global Uncertainty
25 August 2025
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Rand Outlook in Focus as Global Pressures Mount
18 August 2025
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Gold Tariffs, Fed Rate Cut Speculation, and the Rand’s Steady Range
11 August 2025
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US Jobs Data and Tariff Uncertainty Shake Markets, but Rand Holds Steady
4 August 2025
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Interest Rate Watch: US, EU, and SA Central Banks in Focus as Tariff Talks Continue
28 July 2025
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Inflation, Interest Rates, and a Surprisingly Stable Rand
21 July 2025
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In this week’s Weekly Market Update, TreasuryONE Currency Strategist André Cilliers unpacks key market movements shaping the local and global economic landscape. Global focus remains on escalating tariff tensions as U.S. president Donald Trump continues to introduce new tariff proposals - most recently targeting Europe, Mexico, and reiterating penalties for countries like South Africa. With an implementation deadline of 1 August, markets remain uncertain and sensitive to political signals. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data is anticipated to show a slight increase, though unlikely to immediately trigger interest rate cuts. Still, market pricing reflects expectations of up to 50 basis points in cuts by year-end. The Federal Reserve remains cautious amid inflation pressures, tariff risks, and political uncertainty. On the local front, the rand showed mild recovery after briefly touching R18 to the dollar, following political developments and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s short address regarding the police minister. Currency volatility is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer holiday period, with traders adjusting positions and markets reacting to ongoing geopolitical developments. Cilliers cautions that although a significant Rand selloff is not anticipated, the currency could temporarily rise above R18 before retreating again. Markets should continue monitoring dollar performance and any tariff developments before the August deadline.
Tariffs, Inflation, and a Volatile Rand
15 July 2025
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Tariff Uncertainty and Fed Policy Shape Market Outlook as Rand Faces New Pressures
Tariff Uncertainty and Fed Policy Shape Market Outlook as Rand Faces New Pressures
7 July 2025
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In this week’s market update from TreasuryONE and ETM Analytics, Head of Market Risk, Wichard Cilliers, discusses key developments driving global and domestic sentiment.
Markets Hold Steady Ahead of Key U.S. Developments and Domestic Political Noise
30 June 2025
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Tensions and conflict in the Middle East – The impact on the Rand
17 June 2025
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Markets Hold Steady as U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume and Inflation Data Looms
11 June 2025
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Fresh Tariff Threats Renew Market Uncertainty Amid Slow Growth Outlook
Fresh Tariff Threats Renew Market Uncertainty Amid Slow Growth Outlook
2 June 2025
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South Africa Tables Budget, Interest Rate Cut Now in Focus
South Africa Tables Budget, Interest Rate Cut Now in Focus
26 May 2025
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S&P Positive on South Africa, Moody’s Downgrades US Amid Debt Concerns
19 May 2025
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Markets Welcome Temporary US-China Tariff Ceasefire; Attention Turns to US Inflation
13 May 2025
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OPEC’s Output Rise and Fed Rate Outlook Dominate Market Discussions
6 May 2025
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US Treasury Risks Rise as Investors Shift Towards Gold
30 April 2025
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Tariff Tensions Drive Market Volatility Amid US-China Standoff
16 April 2025
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Tariffs, Budget Uncertainties, and Federal Rate Decisions Dominate Discussion - Weekly Market Review
Tariffs, Budget Uncertainties, and Federal Rate Decisions Dominate Discussion – Weekly Market Review
31 March 2025
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Fed and SARB Interest Rate Decisions Explained
Fed and SARB Interest Rate Decisions Explained
25 March 2025
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Falling Yields and Fed rate cuts put pressure on USD
Falling Yields and Fed rate cuts put pressure on USD
12 March 2025
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treasuryone south africa trump
Analysing Recent Turbulence and Future Predictions
4 March 2025
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Market Turbulence Ahead: Unpacking the Delayed Budget and CPI Surprises
24 February 2025
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Global Budget
Budget Anticipation and Global Trends Unpacked
17 February 2025
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treasuryone south africa budget
Weekly Market Review | 11 Feb
11 February 2025
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Interest Rates & Inflation Weekly Market Review 3 Feb
Interest Rates & Inflation | Weekly Market Review 3 Feb
3 February 2025
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Markets React to Trump’s Bold Tariff Actions and Geopolitical Tensions
Markets React to Trump’s Bold Tariff Actions and Geopolitical Tensions
27 January 2025
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Trump Inauguration
Trump’s Inauguration, Tariffs, and the Rand’s Reaction
20 January 2025
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TreasuryONE South Africa 2025 market trends
2025 Market Outlook: US Inflation, Rand Weakness, and Trump’s Return
13 January 2025
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Currency markets hedging foreign exchange
Weekly Market Review 8 Jan
8 January 2025
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US CPI, Interest Rate Cuts, and the Rand’s Stability | Weekly Market Review 10 Dec 2024
10 December 2024
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Trump Threats Eurozone Challenges Rand Insights
Trump’s Tariff Threats, Eurozone Challenges & Rand Insights
3 December 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-fed-rate-cuts
Rand Outlook: Fed Cuts, Trump’s Impact, and Reserve Bank Expectations
19 November 2024
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US Election Impact on the Rand and Market Expectations
11 November 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-US-Election-Uncertainty-Rand-Volatility
US Election Uncertainty and Rand Volatility
4 November 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-US-Election-Implications-markets-Rand
US Election: Implications for Markets and the Rand
1 November 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-us-election
US Election Impact on Markets and Rand Outlook
21 October 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-rand-outlook
Global Economic Uncertainty and Rand Outlook
14 October 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-US-Labour-Data
US Labour Data and Rand Movements
7 October 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-china-struggles
China’s Struggles, US Labour Data, and Rand Strength
30 September 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-interest-rate-mpc-sarb
Interest Rate Cuts and Market Impacts: South Africa, US, and Global Analysis
20 September 2024
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Watershed year as the cycle turns
19 September 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-global-interest-rates
Interest Rate Decisions: What to Expect This Week
16 September 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-us-labour-data
US Labour Market Trends 
11 September 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-global-growth-outlook
Global Growth Outlook Amidst China’s Struggles and US Labour Data
3 September 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-fed-interest-rates
Fed rate cuts are finally coming 
26 August 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-inflation
SA’s Economic Horizon Brightens: Inflation Trends and Global Rate Cuts
19 August 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-anticipating-Fed-Next-Move-Global-Economic-Shifts
Anticipating the Fed’s Next Move Amid Global Economic Shifts
12 August 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-global-Market-Turmoil-Yen-Carry-Trade-interest-Rate-Shifts
Global Market Turmoil: Yen Carry Trade Unwinds and Interest Rate Shifts
5 August 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-monetary-policy
Monetary Policy Dominates as Key Decisions Await
30 July 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-Biden-Exit-interest-Rate-Predictions
Biden’s Exit, Dollar Dynamics, and Interest Rate Predictions
24 July 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-donald-trump
Analyzing Trump’s Assassination Attempt and its Impact
16 July 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-global-political-shifts
Global Political Shifts & Market Impact
9 July 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-global-elections
Global Elections and Economic Impacts
2 July 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-pmi-index
US Resilience, Yen Weakness, and South African Rand Insights
25 June 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-global-inflation
Global Inflation Trends and Rand Stability
10 June 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-US-Economic-Indicators
US Economic Indicators and South Africa’s Political Shift
3 June 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-elections (2)
Countdown to Elections
20 May 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-interest-rate-us-jobless-rates
Unpacking the US Jobless Spike and Future Interest Rate Moves
13 May 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-weekly-video-economy-Fed-Decisions
Navigating US Economy and Fed Decisions
6 May 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-japan-Negative-Interest-Rates
Breaking Down Japan’s Shift from Negative Interest Rates and Global Market Implications
29 April 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-US-Economic-Growth
US Economic Growth Surprises & Middle East Tensions Ease
22 April 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-weekly-market-review-video-israel-iran-missile
Iran Strikes Israel: Minimal Damage but Markets on Edge
15 April 2024
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TreasuryONE-South-Africa-Core-Services-Drive-US-inflation
Core services drive US inflation higher
11 April 2024
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TreasuryONE-South-Africa-US- non-farm-payroll-surge
US non-farm payroll surge
8 April 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-SARB-Leaves-Interest-Rates-Unchanged
SARB Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged
2 April 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-markets-fed-aligned
Markets and Fed Now Aligned
26 March 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-inflation-us
US inflation, ECB Interest Rates and Rand underperforming other EMs
5 March 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-national-budget
A Relook at the 2024 National Budget
26 February 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-economic-chess
2024 Economic Chess
23 February 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-global-interest-rate
The Global Interest Rate Conundrum
19 February 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-global-logistic-disruption
A Forward Look at Inflation, Global Logistic Disruptions and the Rand
12 February 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-china
US Labour Strength, Fed Rates, China’s Crisis & Trade Tensions
6 February 2024
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