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Filtered (41)
Apr 2026
20 May 2026
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Mar 2026
15 April 2026
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Feb 2026
2 March 2026
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FX Dashboard Dec 2025
Jan 2026
13 February 2026
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FX Dashboard Dec 2025
Dec 2025
20 January 2026
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Nov 2025
18 December 2025
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Oct 2025
18 October 2025
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Sept 2025
17 October 2025
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Aug 2025
25 September 2025
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July 2025
4 August 2025
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Currency: The rand has been performing well and appears poised to remain strong in 2025. Easing US-China tensions, improved local politics, and lower-than-expected inflation in South Africa are all contributing to the currency's strength. The rand is now trading at a fair value, and with the US dollar likely to weaken, the rand could move closer to R17 per dollar. More money flowing into South African bonds should also support the rand, as investors are drawn to higher returns in this market. Overall, the trading range for 2025 is likely to remain between R17.50 and R18.50 per dollar, depending on global and local developments. image (10)-2 Inflation: Headline CPI rose marginally in April, to +2.8% y/y from +2.7% y/y in March, driven by higher food inflation. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, decelerated in April to +3.0% y/y from +3.1% y/y in March. The ZAR price of fuel rose slightly in May, but not enough to raise broader price pressures. This supports further low CPI readings going forward, allowing the SARB the perfect opportunity to lower the inflation target to 3%. Repo rate: The SARB resumed its monetary easing cycle in May, cutting the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%. The SARB also revised its inflation forecasts lower, now projecting 3.2% for 2025 and 4.2%-4.4% through 2027, citing a stronger rand, lower oil prices, and the scrapping of VAT hikes. However, growth expectations were downgraded, with 2025 GDP now seen at just 1.2%. Government Finances: South Africa’s fiscal outcomes are expected to worsen in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with the latest Budget projecting a deficit of -4.8% as a percentage of GDP from -4.6% recorded in 2024/25. The key to turning around SA’s precarious fiscal position will be the implementation of structural reforms. GDP Growth: SA’s GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q1, slowing from 0.4% in Q4. Y/y growth held steady at 0.8%. Without a second consecutive quarter of robust agricultural growth (+15.8%), overall GDP would have contracted. Particularly concerning is the significant decline across the productive sectors as mining output and manufacturing shrank fell by 4.1% and 2.0% respectively. Offshore conditions: In May, global financial markets experienced a robust rebound following the turbulence caused by the April tariff shocks. While trade tensions between the US and China eased, there are indications that tensions are escalating again as Trump accuses China of violating the trade agreement. In the US, longer-term Treasury yields rose significantly, reflecting investor concerns over unsustainable high levels of US debt, which looks set to increase by $2.4tn over the next ten years.
June 2025
7 July 2025
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Daily Market Report
FX Outlook
20 June 2025
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May 2025
9 June 2025
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Apr 2025
6 May 2025
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Mar 2025
6 May 2025
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How TreasuryONE Helps Treasurers Navigate Bank Connectivity in a Complex World
Feb 2025
29 March 2025
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Global Market Update March 2025
Global Market Update March 2025
12 March 2025
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The ZAR has returned to levels closer to risk-adjusted fair value.
Jan 2025
20 February 2025
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Impact of Trump's Victory
Dec 2024
31 January 2025
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treasuryone-south-africa-forex-risk-management-november-2024
Nov 2024
10 December 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-foreign-exchange-experts
Oct 2024
11 November 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-fx-view-september-2024
Sept 2024
10 October 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-fx-dashboard-sept-2024
Aug 2024
9 September 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-fx-view-august-2024
July 2024
19 August 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-forex-rate-risk-management-june-2024
June 2024
10 July 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-fx-dashboard-may-2024 (2)
May 2024
13 June 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-fx-dashboard-april-2024
April 2024
8 April 2024
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Treasuryone-south-africa-fx-view-march
March 2024
11 March 2024
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Treasuryone south africa foreign exchange fx risk management
February 2024
6 February 2024
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TreasuryONE-South-Africa-FX-Dashboard-January-2024
January 2024
15 January 2024
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treasuryone-south-africa-fx-dashboard-december-2023
December 2023
11 December 2023
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Treasuryone-south-africa-monthly-fx-dashboard-november-2023
November 2023
27 November 2023
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treasuryone-south-africa-FX-Update
October 2023
9 October 2023
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treasuryone-south-africa-fx-dashboard-september-2023
September 2023
11 September 2023
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Monthly fx update august 2023
August 2023
7 August 2023
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treasuryone-south-africa-interest-rates-july
July 2023
10 July 2023
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treasuryone-south-africa-zar-june
June 2023
20 June 2023
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treasuryone-south-africa-Monthly-FX-View-may-2023
May 2023
15 May 2023
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ETMs-ZAR-Sentiment-Indicator-loses-predictive-power-through-load-shedding
ETM’s ZAR Sentiment Indicator (ZSI) loses predictive power through load shedding
6 March 2023
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The-tide-in-global-monetary-policy-is-shifting
The tide in global monetary policy is shifting
3 February 2023
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USD-overvalution-has-retreated-off-its-hights-but-remains-extreme
USD overvaluation has retreated off its highs but remains extreme
23 January 2023
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